I've got Firefox set up to show me ElTiempo.com as my homepage as soon as I load the browser. That way, I (being one of those atavistic Luddites who owns neither a TV nor a radio) can keep up with breaking news.
It's a plan tha tends to pay off when something especially notable happens, such as the carbomb that went off not a half-mile from my apartment, or the death of FARC leader "Mono Jojoy" last Wednesday.
Today, it's this.
For those who don't read spanish, Rafael Correa, president of Ecuador, was taken to the hospital after rogue police attacked him with tear gas, nearly asphyxiating him. Those same cops, as of this writing, have surrounded the hospital where he's being treated and have effectively taken him hostage. All this came about after Correa's leftist government tried to enact a law that would revoke some economic incentives for the police and armed forces.
To voice their displeasure at having their pocketbooks lightened ever so slightly, a group of police officers did what any disgruntled civil servants would: attack the president.
If you watch the video here, you can see some of the rioting police [a phrase so rarely heard] burning tires to mark their perimeter/picket line around the hospital where they've got Correa cornered.
It should be noted that I'm generally not a fan of Correa, though he does do a fair number of things right. That said, this little barracks revolt is more representative of a bunch of college kids throwing rocks at riot cops than a planned strike or protest with some kind of goal.
You see, most times, when you attack the president of a country, it's what's referred to as a coup d'etat. Or rather, that's what it's called if it succeeds; if it doesn't, it's called treason. Treason, being one of those crimes most countries send you to face a firing squad for.
Where, pray tell, is this little temper-tantrum going?
You've got the president of your country held hostage in the hospital you sent him to. Do you...
...use this as the jumping off point for a coup d'etat?
You'd need the high command of the police and the military to go along with it, in addition to a clear candidate or military junta willing to take the reins. Not having any of that, you're screwed! Your bullet-riddled body will probably end up in an unmarked grave not far from the brick wall they stood you up against. Next time, plan ahead, or roll shaman.
...force the government to the bargaining table with the captive commander-in-chief as a bargaining chip?
Well, it's a slightly better plan than "I proclaim myself dictator for life!" ... but not by much. And it's about as likely to get you killed. The only difference is that instead of bleeding all over the sand at your execution, it'll be all over that fancy persian rug at the peace talks when the military uses it as a trap to lure in the conspirators, as Latin American militaries are known to do.
No government in its right mind would negotiate with a bunch of yokels protesting the removal of certain economic perks via violent rebellion... and then continue paying those yokels to enforce order. It'd be kind of like Lincoln defeating the South, instituting Reconstruction, and then appointing Nathan Bedford Forrest in charge of civil rights.
After all, we've seen what happens to governments who let conspirators hold onto their guns and their power.
...surrender quietly and hope the Powers That Be don't let loyal troops engage in a bit of vindictive machine-gunning?
Congratulations! You've managed to make it out of your hare-brained and half-a**ed uprising with your skin mostly intact. Maybe if you show the proper amount of contrition, you'll just be fired. Otherwise, see you in about a quarter-century! Hopefully you'll make better decisions next time 'round.
After Action Report: There's a lot of talk going on in the news media as to who or what was behind the hostage-taking. Most of them, like Evo Morales's accusation that the White House was behind it, are ludicrous. So far as I can tell, there are a few credible theories.
- It was a bad idea spun out of control. The police were protesting, a few of them got stupid, and a few more of them said, "Well, we've gone this far..." I find it hard to believe, though, especially since the Air Force shut down the airports shortly after it all began.
- They were counting on more support from the military. Not an unreasonable assumption, really; historically, the military and police have been very close, and the Public Service Law that the cops were protesting affected the armed forces as well. Unfortunately, it's usually best if you make sure that the guys with the big guns will actually have you covered, instead of just assuming.
- It was a gambit, sacrificing pawns. This has too much of the conspiracy-theory nutjob about it to really satisfy me. Namely, that someone instigated this little tiff to see if Correa was weak enough to capitulate, or if anti-Correa sentiment was strong enough to oust him.
Send lawyers, guns and money,
J.
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