Bleeding Green, Bleeding Out: When sticking to your principles spells certain defeat

If politics makes strange bedfellows, it looks like Colombia's Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus will be sleeping alone come the second round of the presidential elections on June 20. In the world of Colombia politics, the Green Party is that individual who has come to the conclusion that all relationships are a power struggle, a zero-sum game that can only lead to heartbreak, so all they want are emotionally uninvolved "friends with benefits" that'll be gone by morning and will never appear needy.

On an individual level, that's just peachy if you decide that's what you want. When, however, you are a political party whose sole reason for being is to win elections, it's called "shooting yourself in the foot."

The Greens have declared, in no uncertain terms, that they will not consolidate political agreements or commitments with other parties, calling instead for a "citizen alliance" that will transcend party boundaries. A possible accord for collaboration with the leftist "Polo Democratico Alternativo" fell apart this weekend due to Mockus's unwillingness to integrate certain points into his presidential platform. (In response, the Polo leadership told its constituents to abstain on the 20th of June.)

The Greens don't, however, speak from a position of power. The "citizen alliance" they want and need would have manifested on May 30 in the first round if it was going to do so. Obviously, it didn't, with Mockus garnering 20% of the vote, a respectable turn-out for a newcomer on the national stage, but nowhere near enough to challenge powerhouse Santos's 46% and certainly not sufficient to be making defiant, go-it-alone boasts at this juncture.

The second round will be decided not by a grassroots groundswell of support from newly-enlightened conscience voters, but by the political machinery that has defined Colombian power games for the last two centuries. (Bicentennial: July 20, 2010. Happy early birthday, Colombia!)

Mockus, trailing by 26% points in the first round, has declared that, in the name of transparency and breaking with politics as usual, he'll have nothing to do with that particular tradition.

Granted, he's taken the moral high ground, but he's standing on a mountain of sand. To have any chance of avoiding a humiliating defeat at the polls, he needs something to shore it up with. Like a man so confident of his swimming ability he refused a life vest as the boat sinks out from under him, or, perhaps more apropos, he refuses it because it's made of eco-unfriendly materials.

The question becomes whether Mockus wishes to suffer a noble defeat with his principles intact, or have a fighting chance by giving ground. Right now, his stance on concessions is reminiscent of one of Santos's campaign posters: "Retreat is not an option!" As it stands, unless something changes rapidly and dramatically, the story of the Green Party's rise and fall will be titled, "Chronicle of a Political Suicide Foretold."

Send lawyers, guns and money,
J.

(For further reading: Those who speak spanish might enjoy this analysis of the Green Party's anti-alliance stance.)